Comparing Theories of One-Shot Play Out of Treatment (with Christoph Kuzmics)


We collected data on one-shot play for a representative selection of two-player two- and three-strategy games with unique and completely mixed strategy predictions and propose a new method to compare theories of one-shot play “out of treatment” that allows a direct likelihood comparison: Competing theories are calibrated with pre-existing data using different games and subjects. Most theories in most treatments have predictive power. No theory is uniformly best. Considering risk aversion significantly improves predictive power. Nash equilibrium with risk aversion is among the best predictors of play in four of six treatment groups: the exceptions are the behavior of individuals in the asymmetric own-payoff player positions in games of a matching pennies and rock-scissors-paper variety.

Additional files

Talk about the paper at Bamberg University

Here you can find a recording of a talk by Christoph about the paper at Bamberg University (for an expert audience).

Online Appendix

Here you can find the online appendix of the paper.

Github repository

You can find all additional files (data, code, instructions, ...) in the github repository.

Please contact me to get access to anything not provided here or if you have problems using the code or data.